今天, there are substantially more risks in the project management industry — for both project management firms and the players in delivering buildings. There are three categories of risk that are essential to be aware of: market risks, 建设风险, 风险和保险.
我们和里德·斯特万谈过了, KGO’s Vice President of Operations about these risks and the impact that the pandemic had on the project management and construction management industries. 下面是他的采访.
我是运营副总裁，但我身兼数职. 我领导确定新的人员需求和招聘, 领导来自不同行业的董事, 为我们的业务发展提供全面的输入和领导, 跟踪我们的财务状况并向业主报告.
What are the market risks associated with the project management and construction management industries today?
Businesses are sort of in a holding pattern because they’re waiting to see the direction of COVID-19. 他们希望看到病例数量显著减少, 增加疫苗和助推器的可用性, 等. 因为他们处于这种等待状态, 这意味着更少的租赁空间和建设办公空间.
除此之外, many organizations are opting for a hybrid working arrangement when they return to the office because they’ve seen the ability to maintain productivity by having people work from home over the last 18 months. So, 这取决于人们长期在家工作的程度, 兼职或全职, 这将减少对更多房地产的需求. 当房地产需求减少的时候, there’s also a similar reduced volume of projects available for firms like ours and those in the general contracting industry.
我们在我们的地区和华盛顿看到的, 马里兰, 弗吉尼亚州的租赁业务量比新冠疫情前下降了60%. 区域空缺非常高, 18%的空间无人居住, and that’s compared to a healthy model where you might only have 4 or 5% vacancies. 更重要的是, it’s estimated that less than 30% of the buildings are occupied because of COVID-19. We’ve got a long way to go to get to full or at least a large occupancy percentage.
另外, our region has always benefited from a significant amount of federal government real estate work. And the feds are in the exact same position that the private sector is in — they’re trying to figure out what their “go-back-to-work” strategy will be. 其中有多少将包括减少他们需要的房地产数量?
The impact is this: a very large part of our market is basically in a holding pattern and will almost surely come back with a strategy that involves needing less space, resulting in a reduction in the number of projects and construction we normally count on.
What are the 建设风险 associated with the project management and construction management industries today?
Most of the construction risk trends we’re seeing are directly related to COVID-19. 今天，全国只有不到60%的人完全接种了疫苗, 其影响是，工程建设有重大延误. 这有几个原因.
一个是现场的实际操作或协议. 例如, say we’ve got a major client that makes us provide a brief for every single contractor employee who will be on-site that day, 提醒他们必须戴上口罩，保持社交距离. Then they do an inventory of the number of people who will be on-site and determine how many have been vaccinated, 等. 光是这一点就会花掉你一天中的一个小时. 在很多情况下, 因为社交距离, a lot of the contractors can only put a set number or decreased number of employees on site.
其净影响基本上是建筑速度的放缓. 基本上, all of the elements that are impacting everything from retail to commercial are really being magnified in the construction industry.
What are some of the challenges that you’re experiencing with materials for projects?
There’s a significant increase in the cost of the most important construction equipment like heating, 通风, 空调, 金属, 还有木头，一直都很难弄到. 这对很多总承包商来说是个大问题，因为, 在许多情况下, 他们已经参与进来并赢得了一个保证最大成本的投标, 所以这意味着他们的价格对客户是有保证的, 但他们的成本削减了利润.
如果有成本增加和交货延迟的问题, that’s going to be perceived to be the responsibility of the general contractor and not the client. So, 时间会告诉我们, but there’s talk in the industry about lawsuits being filed because buildings weren’t being delivered on time.
真正的问题是, “谁来为这个千载难逢的问题负责?, 这是由COVID-19引起的?“我们所看到的, 适用于bet5365首页经理和总承包商, 总成本增加了吗, 所以我们的利润受到了严重挤压.
The insurance risk is that there’s potential for litigation regarding the fulfillment of contracts and schedules. That risk is being considered when liability and other premiums are being calculated in the insurance and, 为我们的公司, there’s generally insurance inflation because many of the largest insurance companies in this country are losing money. 这导致保费上涨，因此责任保险费率继续攀升.
除一般保险通货膨胀, 责任保险费率继续以显著的速度攀升. 错误与遗漏保险, 我们行业中所有公司的客户要求是什么, 在过去四年里上涨了45%.
保险只是成本的另一种增加. 我们的律所要么吸收客户，要么转嫁给客户. 在很多情况下, it’s a combination of both where the firms do absorb it and it’s cutting into our profit margins, 而且我们必须把一部分增加的费用转嫁给客户.
One of the things that we do successfully is to focus on providing outstanding service for our existing customers. 最好的新业务是向现有客户扩展服务. We’ve been very successful in getting a lot of repeat business from some of our bigger existing clients.
The other thing we’re doing is we’re really trying to push and use more technology to make ourselves 更高效的 and deliver better quality. 举个例子，我们开发了一个叫做“智能预算”的工具,” which is basically a piece of software that allows us to do very early job pricing for a client. 传统上，客户希望在设计开始之前就知道， “这个bet5365首页要花我多少钱??” 可能需要数周才能得到一个大致数量级的价格, 但这个软件可以让我们在几分钟内完成.
整体, we’re trying to really focus and deliver better quality so we maintain the clients we have and expand. We’re using more technology than ever before to drive efficiencies and 在许多情况下 in order to deliver a higher quality of service.
Project management firms and most major players in the supply chain who deliver buildings, 比如建筑师和总承包商, 正在产生更高的成本, 劳动力短缺, 还有日程上的问题. COVID-19正在推动我们企业的新经济. 所有参与者都必须解决这些问题. Many people feel that it will be sometime towards the end of 2022 before things really start getting back to pre COVID-19 conditions.
I think we’re cautiously optimistic that we are going to be coming out of this in the coming year. But some positive things that we can take from this pandemic is that it’s forced everyone in the industry to become smarter, 更高效的, 在如何应对业务中的这些快速变化方面也更加敏捷.